A study has shown that proposed nicotine bag regulations since 2018 could weaken the effects of smoking in Denmark and predicts that the Danish retail industry will lose up to $85 million in 2030.
On December 4, The Tholos Foundation announced the release of a groundbreaking study by IPSOS and HBS Economics, The risks posed by Denmark’s proposed legal regulation to limit the amount of nicotine in nicotine bags to 9 mg per bag are revealed.
The research shows that if this recommendation were implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine bag customers would choose other purchase channels, including online platforms or across the borders of other EU countries; One in five (18%) users may choose to smoke again; The proposal also threatens to reduce smoking rates in Denmark from 19 percent in 2018 to 14 percent in 2023.
The study notes that three-quarters (75%) of users opt for nicotine packs for health reasons, mainly to cut down or quit smoking; A third of adults (33%) believe these products are a safer alternative to tobacco; The proposed restrictions could seriously weaken strategies to reduce smoking rates.
According to the study, if the new rules are implemented, the Danish retail industry will lose 400 million Danish kroner (about $57 million) in 2025, and this loss will increase to 600 million Danish kroner ($85 million) by 2030; Fiscal revenues of DKK ($42 million) in 2025 are expected to decrease to DKK 435 million ($62 million) in 2030.
More than half of Danish adults oppose recommended nicotine limits, and four out of five (80%) users believe that nicotine packs are essential for them to stay away from tobacco.
Tim Andrews, head of client issues at the Tim Andrews Foundation, said:
- “These findings highlight important consequences for public health. The proposed nicotine restrictions would not only reverse efforts to reduce smoking but could also create new challenges such as a growing black market and economic losses.”
